103
FXUS65 KPSR 101127
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
427 AM MST Fri Apr 10 2026

.UPDATE...12Z Aviation Discussion.

&&


.KEY MESSAGES...

- Today will again bring above normal temperatures, while winds
  increase in advance of an incoming weather system.

- A slow moving weather system over the weekend into early next
  week will result much cooler temperatures, breezy to windy
  conditions, and rain chances focused over higher terrain areas.

- High pressure will eventually settle back into the region by the
  middle of next week leading to warmer and even drier conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Today through Sunday/...
Upper level ridging over the Desert Southwest will gradually give
way to a large upper level trough slowly moving its way into the
Western U.S. through the weekend. The first disturbance is
currently centered off of northern California and it is expected
to quickly dissipate as it moves inland later today into early
Saturday. It will however help to bring increased winds today
across much of the area, particularly across southeast California
where afternoon/evening gusts in excess of 35 mph will be
possible. The warm air mass in place across the Desert Southwest
will also stick around helping to bring another day of highs above
90 degrees across the lower deserts.

A second even stronger shortwave trough is then anticipated to
quickly dive southward along the backside of the large scale
trough later today into Saturday reaching the California coast by
Saturday afternoon. This disturbance will have better upper level
jet support and thus it will remain quite potent as it moves
onshore into central/northern California. The track of the low
center is still forecast to be well to our north as it moves into
Nevada on Sunday with windy conditions being the main impact for
our region Saturday and Sunday. The strongest winds are expected
to occur on Sunday with Advisory level winds very possible across
southeast California into portions of the Arizona high terrain.

Moisture across the region will improve today, but it will largely
be aloft before another batch of dry air spreads through the
region on Saturday. The second stronger disturbance is likely to
be close enough to pull better moisture northeastward into our
region starting Sunday, but again much of the moisture will be
aloft. PoPs this weekend mostly stay below 10% areawide with at
most a few virga showers possible across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As the second shortwave trough weakens over Nevada on Sunday, a
third shortwave is shown to move southeastward along the
California coast Sunday night into Monday eventually merging with
the leftover Nevada shortwave energy. Guidance is in good
agreement showing this combined shortwave energy moving through
the northern 2/3rds of Arizona later on Monday. This should
provide our best rain chances as some moisture is likely to pool
along a weak cold front moving west to east across Arizona Monday
afternoon/evening. NBM PoPs are a bit higher than what was shown
24 hours ago, but chances are still at most 10-20% in the Phoenix
area to 25-40% over the higher terrain northeast of Phoenix. Any
showers that do develop should provide little accumulating
rainfall.

Monday will also bring our coolest temperatures of the period with
highs likely only topping out in the mid to upper 70s, or 6-8
degrees below normal. As skies clear out Monday night/Tuesday
morning overnight temperatures will dip into the 40s for rural
areas to as cool as 50 degrees within the Phoenix metro.

Starting Tuesday and potentially lasting through the rest of next
week, quasi-zonal dry westerly flow is favored over our region.
This should lead to an initial slow warming trend through mid week
before temperatures settle at or just above normal later next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1120Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
No major aviation weather concerns are expected through the
forecast period under SCT to BKN mid and high cloud decks. Winds
will follow a nearly identical diurnal trend to the past 24 hours,
with the exception of a 3-4 hour southerly component before winds
shift out of the southwest this afternoon. Intermittent gusts into
the upper teens to around 20 kts will be possible. No slantwise
visibility impacts are expected.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
The main aviation concerns will be gusty winds, particularly at
KIPL this evening. Winds will be predominantly westerly at KIPL
and south to southwesterly at KBLH through most of the TAF period.
Gusts will materialize at both terminals this afternoon, reaching
as high as 20-25 kts at KBLH and 25-30 kts at KIPL. Winds will
continue to gust at KIPL overnight. SCT to BKN mid and high cloud
decks will continue to pass over the area through this morning
and become FEW by the evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The weather pattern will become more active through the weekend,
but overall dry conditions will still prevail. The biggest impacts
will come from an increase in winds starting as early as this
afternoon across the western districts. MinRHs today will range
from 10-20% before gradually increasing this weekend and peaking
on Monday at 25-35%. As a weather system pushes through the region
Sunday into Monday, winds will become breezy to windy across the
entire area with gusts 25-35 mph quite common on Sunday. Due to
the lower RHs today and even Saturday, elevated fire weather
conditions may become an issue. Scattered showers will be
possible mainly over the higher terrain of southcentral AZ on
Monday, but CWR will remain low 

NWS Phoenix (PSR) Office