306
FXUS66 KLOX 101211
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
511 AM PDT Fri Apr 10 2026

.SYNOPSIS...09/1148 PM.

A cooling trend will continue through the weekend. A couple
storms will move through the area today through Monday with
showers and thunderstorms possible. Dry and warmer weather
expected the rest of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...10/1233 AM.

An upper high to the NW of the Bay Area will push up to the NE
during the day today. It will bring a front through the state as
it does. Since the upper low will be so far to the north of Srn CA
it will not have much of a punch and will mostly affect areas
north of Pt Conception. Showers should arrive in the morning
across the Central Coast. In the afternoon showers will likely
continue across SLO county where there will be just enough
instability to bring a slight chc of a TSTM. Elsewhere there will
be a 50 percent chc of showers across SBA county and just a 20
percent chc over VTA county. Rainfall amounts, if any, will be
a tenth of an inch or less for most areas except for far NW SLO
county and a few areas in the SLO/SBA mtns. Onshore flow, partly
to mostly cloudy skies and falling hgts will all gang up and lower
max temps by 2 to 4 degrees across the csts, 3 to 7 in the vlys
and 8 to 10 degrees for the mtns and far interior. Today`s max
temps will mostly be 4 to 6 degrees blo normal.

There will be a 30 to 40 percent chc of rain this evening across
most of the area as the front washes out over the area. Rainfall
totals overngiht will not amount to more than a tenth of an inch
except for the NW tip of SLO county where an additional quarter
inch of rain could fall.

Most of the area will be in between storms during the day
Saturday. A more vigorous cold front will approach the Central
Coast later in the afternoon. Rain will likely develop across SLO
county by evening with a chc of rain reaching as far south as Pt
Conception. Again rainfall totals for the rainy areas will be
under a tenth with the standard exception of the NW tip of SLO
county where a quarter inch could fall. Max temps will cool
another 2 to 4 degrees and most cst/vly max temps will end up in
the mid 60s to lower 70s.

A cold (esp for April) 537 dam low will sweep into the Bay Area
Saturday night and will drive a vigorous cold front through Srn
CA. Rain is a near certainty for the area overnight. This system
will bring dynamics and instability with it and there is a chc of
TSTMs across the area but with the best chc focused north of Pt
Conception where the best instability will occur. There will be
just enough twist within the atmosphere to also bring a small
threat of a waterspout or small tornado. Overnight rain totals
will likely range from a half inch to an inch with greater amounts
across the coastal slopes and any area affected by TSTMs. Peak
rain rates expected to range from 0.25-0.50" per hour with
isolated stronger storms as high as 0.75" per hour. Snow levels
will be between 6000 and 7000 ft and several inches of snow is
possible above 7000 ft.

Showery activity will persist through Sunday and even into the
evening and overnight hours as the front finishes moving through
the area and several post frontal impulses move across the area.
Another quarter to half inch of rain is possible but rainfall
totals will likely be less homogeneous as the showers will be
more random. It will feel more like January with max temps only in
the mid 60s

Snow level levels will lower to around 5000 ft Sunday night and
the top of the Tejon Pass may see some snow will less than an inch
accumulations.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...09/227 PM.

The upper low is expected to pass through southern California
Monday morning, with scattered showers and snow levels dropping to
around 4500-5000 feet. Chances for any snow accumulations on the
Grapevine are less than 10% but there could be some flurries or
mix of rain and snow on the summit Monday morning. There is a
chance of showers across LA County through Monday afternoon if the
low is a little slower leaving the area. Otherwise, drying
conditions expected Monday night and dry and warmer weather the
rest of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...10/1210Z.

At 0818Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 900 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was at 2000 ft with a temperature of 17 C.

Overall, moderate confidence in TAF (Good confidence in TAFs for
KPMD and KWJF) Package. There is a 30 percent chc that sites with
only MVFR in the afternoon could have periods of VFR. Flight Cat
transitions could be off by as much as 90 minutes. There is a 20
percent chc of -RA over KSBA, KOXR and KCMA this afternoon. There
is a 20 to 30 percent chc of rain at all sites from 04Z-12Z
tonight.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30 percent chc of
SCT conds 18Z-01Z. There is a 20 percent chc of rain aft 04Z. No
significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30 percent chc that
cigs will be AOA 010.

&&

.MARINE...10/332 AM.

A weak Cold Front will move across the coastal waters today into
Saturday morning bringing showers and a slight chance for a
thunderstorm north of point conception.

A second system will arrive later on Saturday into Sunday with a
more traditional cold front. This stronger front will bring
numerous showers and a slight chance for thunderstorms across all
waters. Potential hazards include: heavy downpours, dangerous
cloud to ocean lightning, small hail, and erratic gusty winds.
Boaters, especially those with small vessels should avoid these
conditions.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...Black/RS
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Los Angeles (LOX) Office